Global smartphone shipments are forecast to experience a significant downturn in 2026. Shipments are expected to drop by 12.9% year-over-year (YoY), bringing the total market volume down to 1.1 billion units, according to the latest data from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker.
This contraction marks the lowest annual shipment volume the smartphone market has recorded in more than a decade.
Key Driver: The Memory Shortage Crisis
The primary catalyst for this downturn is an intensifying global memory shortage. The current projection represents a sharp downward revision from the IDC’s previous forecast issued in November, indicating that the supply chain constraints have accelerated more rapidly than initially anticipated.
Because memory components are critical to device manufacturing, the shortage is heavily constraining output across the industry.
Regional Impact
The supply crisis is not impacting all regions equally. Markets with a high concentration of low-end and budget smartphones are absorbing the heaviest losses, likely due to tighter profit margins and lower priority in component allocation compared to premium devices.
Here is a breakdown of the projected YoY shipment declines across major affected regions:
| Region | Projected Decline (YoY) | Market Context |
| Middle East & Africa | -20.6% | Steepest projected drop globally |
| Asia Pacific (excluding Japan and China) | -13.1% | One of the world’s largest consumer markets |
| China | -10.5% | The single largest national market |
Future Market Outlook
While 2026 is expected to be a challenging year for smartphone manufacturers and suppliers, the IDC anticipates a stabilization of the memory shortage crisis by the middle of 2027.
Based on this timeline, the market tracker forecasts a gradual return to growth:
- 2027: A modest recovery with 2.0% YoY growth as component supplies begin to stabilize.
- 2028: A stronger rebound with shipments growing at 5.2% YoY, signaling a broader market recovery.