Apple is set to change its iPhone release strategy, with plans to begin in the second half of 2025, as forecasted by analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. The company may begin launching budget models in the first half of the year and premium models in the second half—marking what Kuo calls an “emerging norm” driven by increasing competition, especially in China.
iPhone Launch Predictions (2H25–2H27)
2H25 (Second Half of 2025):
- iPhone 17 Pro Max
- iPhone 17 Pro
- iPhone 17 Slim
- iPhone 17
1H26 (First Half of 2026):
- iPhone 17e
2H26:
- iPhone Foldable (first-generation)
- iPhone 18 Pro Max
- iPhone 18 Pro
- iPhone 18 Slim
1H27:
- iPhone 18
- iPhone 18e
2H27:
- iPhone Foldable 2 (development already in progress)
- iPhone 19 Pro Max
- iPhone 19 Pro
- iPhone 19 Slim (is likely to offer a larger display than the iPhone 18 Slim)
Reason Behind the Change
Kuo noted that Apple’s revised approach to a bi-annual iPhone launch is influenced by several key factors:
Competition in Key Markets: Apple faces growing competition from brands like Samsung and OnePlus, which typically release new phones in the first half of the year. Aligning iPhone launches in both halves could help close that “marketing gap” and maintain year-round consumer interest.
Product Line Expansion Needs: The company is expected to increase the number of iPhone models. Launching all models in the fall could weaken marketing effectiveness. Kuo observed that Pro models currently dominate attention, which sidelines lower-priced variants.
The move is seen as a response to pressures in markets like China, where fast-paced product cycles by rivals are pushing Apple to adapt.
Broader Implications
If implemented, the new launch cycle could create ripple effects across the smartphone industry. Competitors might alter their release timelines to avoid overlap, and Apple’s suppliers would need to adjust their production schedules.
Kuo believes this staggered timeline could also stabilize iPhone manufacturing, reducing the typical production drop that follows Apple’s fall launches.