Global smartphone shipments are projected to grow 1.5% year-on-year (YoY) in 2025, reaching 1.25 billion units, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker.
This is an upward revision from the prior forecast of 1% growth, driven by Apple’s strong performance in the holiday quarter, growth in key emerging markets, and stabilization in China.
Apple’s Shipment Forecast
Apple’s shipments are expected to rise 6.1% YoY in 2025, up from the previous forecast of 3.9%.
Nabila Popal, Senior Research Director, IDC, said,
Apple is set to have a record year in 2025 with shipments forecast to cross 247 million units, thanks to the phenomenal success of its latest iPhone 17 series.
In China, Apple ranked first in October and November with more than 20% market share, according to IDC’s China Monthly Sales data. This performance led IDC to revise Apple’s Q4 forecast in China from 9% to 17% YoY, turning an earlier projected 1% decline into a 3% growth.
Similar trends were observed in other regions, including the US and Western Europe. Apple’s total revenue for 2025 is forecast to exceed $261 billion, a 7.2% YoY increase.
Outlook for 2026 and Market Value
IDC expects smartphone shipments to decline by 0.9% in 2026, revised from an earlier 1.2% growth forecast. Factors include component shortages and product cycle adjustments. Apple’s next base iPhone model, delayed from fall 2026 to early 2027, is projected to reduce iOS shipments by 4.2%.
The global memory shortage is expected to constrain supply and increase prices, particularly affecting low- to mid-range Android devices. Despite the decline in units, the average selling price (ASP) is forecast to rise to $465, pushing the total market value to a record $578.9 billion.
Anthony Scarsella, Research Director, IDC, said,
As memory components become more limited and more expensive, manufacturers face increasing pressure to raise prices. Vendors may raise prices or adjust their portfolio toward higher-margin models to absorb memory cost impacts.
While 2026 is expected to experience supply constraints and pricing pressures, the overall market value is projected to remain at record levels despite a slight decline in unit shipments.